Macro strategy

Priya Raman · Quant & DX Champion P

Macro strategy

Research-to-action, traceable end to end: a note produces directional signals, and a stored stress scenario — fired at a real desk — produces a P&L impact and a proposed hedge. Every signal hangs off the paragraph it was pulled from; every stress result names the shock set and the book it hit.

Research notes 6
In the library
Directional signals 10
Extracted & live
Stress scenarios 5
Ready to run
Stress runs 5
Most recent shown

Directional signals

Highest conviction first

Instrument View Conviction Horizon Confidence Source
USD/JPY
BOJ hiking into a Fed cutting cycle narrows the rate differential; carry unwind targets 148.
 Bearish High 3M 84.5% MR-JPY-FX-OUTLOOK-H2
JGB 10Y
Faster JGB taper and a higher policy-rate floor push the 10Y yield toward 1.35% — bearish bond price.
 Bearish High 6M 79.0% MR-BOJ-POLICY-2026Q3
GBP/JPY
Higher-beta expression of the yen-appreciation view as global carry is cut.
 Bearish High 6M 76.3% MR-JPY-FX-OUTLOOK-H2
BRENT CRUDE
Under-priced escalation risk across two theatres re-rates the energy premium toward $95.
 Bullish High 3M 72.8% MR-GEOPOLITICS-ENERGY
UST 10Y
Cooling payrolls and easing wages open two Fed cuts; belly duration rallies.
 Bullish Medium 3M 71.0% MR-US-LABOUR-2026-06
CDX IG
Cycle-tight spreads with weakening coverage; refinancing walls widen IG 30-40bps.
 Bearish Medium 6M 68.5% MR-CREDIT-CYCLE-2026
XAU/USD
Geopolitical bid and falling real rates support gold as a cross-asset hedge.
 Bullish Medium 6M 66.0% MR-GEOPOLITICS-ENERGY
JPY 5Y5Y INFL
Normalisation validates a durable exit from deflation; break-evens drift higher.
 Bullish Medium 12M 63.3% MR-BOJ-POLICY-2026Q3
NIKKEI 225
Equity vol too low for the geopolitical tail; a yen bid compounds the drawdown for exporters.
 Bearish Medium 3M 61.0% MR-GEOPOLITICS-ENERGY
EUR/USD
Fed easing versus an on-hold ECB nets to a range; low-conviction hold.
 Neutral Low 1M 55.5% MR-GLOBAL-RATES-PATH

Research library

The notes behind the signals

Stress the book

Credit Spreads +100bps

Severe

A late-cycle credit repricing widens IG 100bps and HY 300bps with the CDS indices leading; CS01 books take the brunt.

Global Equity -20% Risk-Off

Severe

A broad risk-off drawdown takes global equities down 20% with a vol spike and a sympathetic credit widening and flight to quality.

Yen 10% Appreciation Shock

Severe

A disorderly carry unwind drives a 10% yen appreciation across the crosses with a spike in JPY vol; punishes short-yen and unhedged foreign-currency exposures.

BOJ +50bps and Faster Taper

Moderate

Bank of Japan lifts the policy rate 50bps and accelerates JGB tapering; front-end and 10Y JGB yields reprice higher, yen appreciates.

Fed +50bps Hawkish Surprise

Moderate

A sticky-inflation surprise forces the Fed to hike 50bps against easing expectations; USD rallies, USTs sell off, risk assets de-rate.

Recent stress results

What each scenario did to the book

Scenario Subject P&L impact VaR impact Worst factor Run
Yen 10% Appreciation Shock
SC-JPY-10PC
 Desk CREDIT 617M 9.8M usdjpy_pct 14 Jul 2026, 04:52
Credit Spreads +100bps
SC-CREDIT-100BPS
 Desk CREDIT -43M 9.8M hy_cs_bps 14 Jul 2026, 04:52
Yen 10% Appreciation Shock
SC-JPY-10PC
 Portfolio GCIB-FX-TRANSLATION -15M 5.2M USDJPY 08 Jul 2026, 02:58
Credit Spreads +100bps
SC-CREDIT-100BPS
 Desk CREDIT -6.9M 4.1M CDX_IG 03 Jul 2026, 02:58
BOJ +50bps and Faster Taper
SC-BOJ-50BPS
 Desk RATES -8.4M 3.2M JGB_10Y 28 Jun 2026, 02:58